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The continuous high-speed growth of foreign trade has laid the tone for the annual growth rate
Published:
2021-06-09
According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs, the import and export of foreign trade reached a new high in May and continued to show a rapid growth trend. The achievement is mainly due to the competitiveness of "Made in China" and the rising external demand, coupled with the policy dividends of stabilizing foreign trade and expanding opening up, and the low base contribution of the outbreak in the first half of last year. Specifically, in terms of US dollars, the total value of China's import and export in May 2021 was US$ 482.31 billion, up 38.9% year-on-year, and down 0.6% month-on-month from April, in which the total value of exports was US$ 263.92 billion and the total value of imports was US$ 218.38 billion, up 30.1% and 51.2% year-on-year, respectively. The balance of foreign trade was US$ 45.54 billion, down 27.6% year-on-year. First, the export growth rate declined slightly, but it still maintained a high-speed growth, which was in line with market expectations. There are two factors that have kept export growth running at a high speed. First, the demand of traditional overseas markets continues to recover, and overseas orders continue to grow. At the same time, the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States has eased and the economy has recovered, but the supply and demand are misplaced, further supporting China's export to maintain high growth; Secondly, the expansion of emerging market countries has achieved phased results, and exports to emerging market countries have continued to grow. However, the export of products related to epidemic prevention declined sharply in May, which may be due to external decline and increased competition. Second, the import increased sharply and rapidly, which brought about a 27.6% year-on-year decline in trade surplus. The increase in imports in May was mainly due to the rising international commodity prices, and the increase in total imports of non-ferrous metals, crude oil and other commodities far exceeded the increase in imports. The growth of soybean and edible vegetable oil imports is mainly due to the strong demand in the domestic market, and at the same time, in order to maintain food security, the import stocks are increased. Third, the total volume of imports and exports to major trading partners increased rapidly and positively, with an average year-on-year increase of 43%. The status and trade growth rate of major trading partners have not changed much, but the trade with emerging economies has increased significantly. The top economies in terms of total import and export volume are still ASEAN ($72,313.2 million), EU ($67,162.8 million), US ($57,993.5 million), Japan ($30,575.8 million) and South Korea ($29,631.7 million). It is worth noting that emerging economies are prominent among the trading partners with the largest increase in total import and export volume in May, such as South Africa (136%), India (105%), the Philippines (81%) and Brazil (74%). Affected by the easing of bilateral relations between China and India and the spread of epidemic in India, the total trade volume with India has exceeded the same period of previous years for several consecutive months. The continuous high-speed growth of foreign trade from January to May laid the foundation and set the tone for the high-speed growth of foreign trade in the second half and the whole year. In the first five months, the total value of imports and exports in US dollars increased by 38.1%, exports by 40.2%, imports by 35.6%, and trade surplus by 70.2%. With such a high-speed growth, even if the foreign trade situation tends to be flat in the second half of the year, it can achieve a large increase in foreign trade throughout the year. Looking at the foreign trade situation in the second half of the year, three factors determine the basic trend. First, affected by the global economic recovery, the consumption demand and production demand in the international market have recovered, and China's overall foreign trade is expected to maintain a sustained high growth in the second half of the year. Second, as the global commodity prices continue to rise, it is expected that the growth rate of import scale will stabilize at a relatively high level for some time to come. Third, thanks to the continuous deepening of China's opening up to the outside world, the scale of foreign trade with emerging market entities will maintain an overall growth trend for a long time. Foreign trade development in the second half of the year should also pay attention to two challenges. On the one hand, the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States is gradually easing, and there is a mismatch between supply and demand at this stage. However, with the recovery of production capacity in Europe and the United States, the demand in the external market may decline, and China needs to pay close attention to the trend of supply and demand in the international market. On the ot
According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs, the import and export of foreign trade reached a new high in May and continued to show a rapid growth trend. The achievement is mainly due to the competitiveness of "Made in China" and the rising external demand, coupled with the policy dividends of stabilizing foreign trade and expanding opening up, and the low base contribution of the outbreak in the first half of last year. Specifically, in terms of US dollars, the total value of China's import and export in May 2021 was US$ 482.31 billion, up 38.9% year-on-year, and down 0.6% month-on-month from April, in which the total value of exports was US$ 263.92 billion and the total value of imports was US$ 218.38 billion, up 30.1% and 51.2% year-on-year, respectively. The balance of foreign trade was US$ 45.54 billion, down 27.6% year-on-year. First, the export growth rate declined slightly, but it still maintained a high-speed growth, which was in line with market expectations. There are two factors that have kept export growth running at a high speed. First, the demand of traditional overseas markets continues to recover, and overseas orders continue to grow. At the same time, the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States has eased and the economy has recovered, but the supply and demand are misplaced, further supporting China's export to maintain high growth; Secondly, the expansion of emerging market countries has achieved phased results, and exports to emerging market countries have continued to grow. However, the export of products related to epidemic prevention declined sharply in May, which may be due to external decline and increased competition. Second, the import increased sharply and rapidly, which brought about a 27.6% year-on-year decline in trade surplus. The increase in imports in May was mainly due to the rising international commodity prices, and the increase in total imports of non-ferrous metals, crude oil and other commodities far exceeded the increase in imports. The growth of soybean and edible vegetable oil imports is mainly due to the strong demand in the domestic market, and at the same time, in order to maintain food security, the import stocks are increased. Third, the total volume of imports and exports to major trading partners increased rapidly and positively, with an average year-on-year increase of 43%. The status and trade growth rate of major trading partners have not changed much, but the trade with emerging economies has increased significantly. The top economies in terms of total import and export volume are still ASEAN ($72,313.2 million), EU ($67,162.8 million), US ($57,993.5 million), Japan ($30,575.8 million) and South Korea ($29,631.7 million). It is worth noting that emerging economies are prominent among the trading partners with the largest increase in total import and export volume in May, such as South Africa (136%), India (105%), the Philippines (81%) and Brazil (74%). Affected by the easing of bilateral relations between China and India and the spread of epidemic in India, the total trade volume with India has exceeded the same period of previous years for several consecutive months. The continuous high-speed growth of foreign trade from January to May laid the foundation and set the tone for the high-speed growth of foreign trade in the second half and the whole year. In the first five months, the total value of imports and exports in US dollars increased by 38.1%, exports by 40.2%, imports by 35.6%, and trade surplus by 70.2%. With such a high-speed growth, even if the foreign trade situation tends to be flat in the second half of the year, it can achieve a large increase in foreign trade throughout the year. Looking at the foreign trade situation in the second half of the year, three factors determine the basic trend. First, affected by the global economic recovery, the consumption demand and production demand in the international market have recovered, and China's overall foreign trade is expected to maintain a sustained high growth in the second half of the year. Second, as the global commodity prices continue to rise, it is expected that the growth rate of import scale will stabilize at a relatively high level for some time to come. Third, thanks to the continuous deepening of China's opening up to the outside world, the scale of foreign trade with emerging market entities will maintain an overall growth trend for a long time. Foreign trade development in the second half of the year should also pay attention to two challenges. On the one hand, the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States is gradually easing, and there is a mismatch between supply and demand at this stage. However, with the recovery of production capacity in Europe and the United States, the demand in the external market may decline, and China needs to pay close attention to the trend of supply and demand in the international market. On the other hand, due to repeated epidemics in Southeast Asia and other regions, the once-feared industrial relocation has not yet occurred on a large scale, but it is still necessary to remain vigilant, insist on giving full play to the comprehensive advantages of policies, business environment, industrial chain and human capital, and enhance the confidence of international capital in the Chinese market.